“Bust” is a term used to describe players who were picked high in the draft but had lackluster performances. However, the term has been used too frequently and early in players’ careers.
In all honesty, the draft system as a whole naturally produces busts. Players are drafted to the worst teams and are expected to be competent as soon as they enter their respective leagues.
Some leagues, such as the NBA, use the draft lottery system. The draft lottery gives the worst teams the highest percentage of getting a high draft pick. This system was instituted to prevent tanking, which is the intentional act of losing games with hopes of a higher draft pick.
However, this can be a problem for the new players. The best prospects are drafted the highest, meaning they go to the worst teams. Sometimes, these teams are dysfunctional or unable to develop the young players for the professional level of play.
There are some exceptions to this, such as the San Antonio Spurs. Each time they receive the number one draft pick, they successfully develop the player. This is largely due to the Spurs having a functional coaching staff and front office since future Hall of Fame coach Gregg Popovich was hired in 1996.
In the 1989 draft, the Spurs drafted Hall of Famer David Robinson, in 1997, they drafted Hall of Famer Tim Duncan and in 2023, they drafted the promising phenom Victor Wembanyama with their number one draft pick.
Some teams that simply had a bad season or received a high pick with a low percentage of receiving it are beneficial to the prospects, as they may be drafted to a functional franchise.
The Golden State Warriors are an example of this phenomenon, as they had a terrible 2020 season, placing last in the Western Conference with a 15-50 record. They received the second pick and chose center James Wiseman. Although he ultimately did not work out with the franchise, it was not a functionality issue, but more of a playstyle issue.
The problem is the majority of young prospects are being drafted to teams that have no true hope for the future. Franchises such as these would draft promising players and never build around them or develop them properly. Furthermore, some players simply don’t mesh with the system in which they are drafted. These themes are what turn the prospects into so-called “busts.”
Injuries and level of work ethic are large factors in the bust percentage of many players as well.
These busts in the NBA include 2001 No. 1 pick Kwame Brown, 2003 No. 2 pick Darko Milicic, 2007 No. 1 pick Greg Oden and 2013 No. 1 pick Anthony Bennett.
Another issue is that the media tends to label players as busts before they can reach their full potential. For some reason, they believe that every player will be the next LeBron James and average all-star numbers in their first year, but of course, this is not the case.
A prime example of this is Golden State Warriors forward Andrew Wiggins. He was drafted first overall in the 2014 draft by the Cleveland Cavaliers and traded to the Minnesota Timberwolves before his rookie season commenced. Wiggins was not living up to the hype in Minnesota, but a change of scenery in 2020 sent him to Golden State, and he was the starting forward on the 2022 Warriors Championship team.
Regarding dysfunctionality, a better example would be Lauri Markkanen. Markkanen was drafted seventh overall in the 2017 draft by the Chicago Bulls. The Bulls are infamous for their dysfunctional franchise and inability to develop young players. Eventually, Markannen was traded to Cleveland in the 2021 offseason and then to the Jazz in the 2022 offseason. Now, he is an all-star after largely being regarded as a journeyman.
Essentially, young prospects need to be given the opportunity to develop and make the transition to professional basketball, especially since the draft lottery system sets them up for failure. If we do not allow them to do so, can we truly call them “busts?” I would think not.
